Publications

A Unified Model of Cohort Mortality for Economic Analysis (with Adriana Lleras-Muney), Demography, 2022

We propose a parsimonious model of lifetime mortality which fits mortality and survival curves for human cohorts since 1816 and sheds light on the dynamics behind a wide range of phenomena such as mortality gradients across socio-economic statuses, or mortality displacement after extreme weather shocks. NBER WP IMF WP IMF Research Perspectives [model][replication]

Judge Bias in Labor Courts and Firm Performance (with Pierre Cahuc, Stéphane Carcillo, Bérengère Patault), Journal of the European Economic Association, 2024

Using 145,000 Appeal court rulings on labor disputes, combined with administrative firm-level data, we show that the uncertainty associated with the actual dispersion of judge bias is small, has a non-significant impact for average outcomes, but can impact small, low-performing firms. Our study relies on an automated text analysis of more than . IMF WP VoxEU

Diversification in Sight? A Macroeconomic Assessment of Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 (with Zamid Alighishiev) International Economics, 2024

Saudi Arabia embarked in 2021 on a large-scale National Investment Strategy (NIS) designed to lift potential GDP growth by diversifying the economy. This article describes the strategy and uses a dynamic model to assess its potential macroeconomic implications.

Working Papers

How Costly Are Cartels? (with Ludovic Panon) [Revisions requested at AEJ: Macroeconomics]

In a static oligopoly model with heterogeneous firms and endogenous markups, cartels can amplify or dampen misallocation, by charging supracompetitive markups and reallocating demand towards non-colluding firms. Using French micro data, our baseline calibration suggests that breaking down cartels would increase aggregate productivity by 1.1% and welfare by 2%. IMF WP; Vox EU; Les Echos[1][2]

Harnessing Satellite Data to Improve Social Assistance Targeting in the Eastern Caribbean (with Sophia Chen, Ryu Matsuura, and Joana Pereira) [Submitted]

In the Eastern Caribbean, social assistance targeting is constrained by limited data and the need for rapid support in times of large economic and natural disaster shocks. We leverage recent advances in machine learning and satellite imagery processing to propose an implementable strategy in the face of these constraints. IMF WP

The Dynamics of Trade Integration and Fragmentation in Latin America (with Rafael Machado Parente)

Despite progress on trade openness, LAC continues to be held back due largely to poor infrastructure, burdensome customs clearance procedures, as well as relatively high non-tariff barriers. The paper quantifies the potential gains from removing these obstacles and studies the potential impact of geoeconomic fragmentation on Latin America’s trade flows. IMF WP; IMF Blog; Bloomberg Línea; The Economist

Inferring Capital-Labor Substitution from Firm Size Distortions [under revision]

Using distortions in firm-level capital intensity and the amount of bunching in the firm size distribution near policy thresholds, I find that firm-level production functions are closer to Leontieff and the aggregate elasticity in the economy around 0.3 at the medium-term horizon. In addition, I provide direct evidence for evasion: under-reporting of firm size surges around the thresholds and is a major driver of the apparent distortions.

Work in Progress

A Search-Based Theory of Mergers and Acquisitions (with Semih Üslü)

The Cost of Economic Cartels in LAC (with Ludovic Panon)

Closing the Gap: Labor Force Participation in Latin America (with Camila Casas)

Informality, Labor Slack, and the Phillips Curve in Latin America (with Camila Casas and Ana Paula Nothen Ruhe)

Natural Resource Contracts in Sub-Saharan Africa: an Empirical Analysis (with Antoine Arnoud and Abraham Lartey)

Greening the IMF Quotas: a Proposal for Paris Alignment (with Shan He and Mengxue Wang)

Growth and the Energy Transition in the Caribbean (with DeLisle Worrell)

Migration and Labor Policies in Small Island States: the case of the Eastern Caribbean

Other Publications

Quel est l’impact du pouvoir d’appreciation des juges sur les indemnites de licenciement? (with Pierre Cahuc, Stéphane Carcillo, and Bérengère Patault), Droit Social, Sept. 2022

Do French companies under-report their workforce at 49 employees to get around the law? (with P. Askenazy, T. Breda, and V. Pecheu), IPP Policy Brief n°82

Replication

In July 2023, we organized the first Bank-Fund Replication Games in partnership with the Institute for Replication